There have been a lot of review in the blogosphere about how twitter can predict the success rate of a movie. Two HP researchers, Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A. Huberman, publish a paper that studies the impact of movie conversation in Twitter with the movie success rate.
They conclude that:
|1. Social media feeds can be an effective indicator of real-world performance.|
|2. The rate at which movie tweets are generated can be used to build a powerful model for predicting movie box-office revenue. Moreover our predictions are consistently better than those produced by an information market such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the gold standard in the industry|
|3. Our analysis of the sentiment content in the tweets shows that they can improve box-office revenue predictions based on tweet rates only after the movies are released.|
Twitter – Opinion Leaders ?
I recently delve into the study of Social Network Analysis. Social network analysis is process to recognise the relationship between people in a community. One application of social network analysis is to identify who is the respected expert who influence the opinion of the group. Understanding these opinion leaders may help us to understand how people will react towards new ideas or innovation. New comers usually try to get buy in from these opinion leaders to back up their own ideas to promote acceptance and potentially induce change.
Asur and Huberman research showed that Twitter streams aggregates has becoming a powerful opinion leader for movie goers. Twitter has the potential to become the centre of everyone attention as the platform for sending viral marketing or propagates new innovation in the market.
Supertweet for Movie Ad
I am interested to see whether major movie player in the industry will invest more heavily in advertising in twitter. There has been some discussions in the blogosphere about the emergence of SuperTweet.
Robert Scoble mentioned in his blog that Super Tweet is basically a tweet that carries meta data about a particular topic in the tweet. He suggested that advertiser can make use of this metadata to carry the advertisement information.
There are quite a number of possibilities how the movie industry can use this meta data:
- Movie critic website such as Rotten Tomato can create a bot that crawls tweet that contain movie metadata and aggregate them on their website
- Movie producers can use SuperTweet to insert link to their website into the metadata to promote their movies.
Possibilities are limitless and potential applications are very interesting. On going studies around conversation stream in social media may lead to great findings about how we can leverage the social media to induce change, innovation and radical ideas.